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Many economists expect to see an end to the recession in September, according to a Wall Street Journal forecasting survey of 53 economists conducted April 3 to April 6. The first and second quarters are expected to see a contraction of 5.0 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively, in gross domestic product, with modest 0.4 percent growth in the third quarter. Only 12 percent of the economists expect the unemployment rate to fall in 2009, with about one-third expecting it to peak in the first half of 2010, and half expecting a decline in the second half of 2010. Last year's sharp cuts to businesses' production and inventory are considered reason to hope, because the economy may have reached the point where it can only increase output to meet even basic demand. The economists named the credit markets as one of the biggest risks to their forecasts, followed by possible failure of another financial institution and lower consumer spending.
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From "Economists See a Rebound in September"
Wall Street Journal (04/09/09) Izzo, Phil